Rice farmers across Ghana’s major agricultural valleys are preparing to cultivate only half of their available farmland this season, citing an unprecedented stockpile of unsold rice that has left many unable to finance a new planting cycle.

The development has raised concerns among agricultural experts and economists, who warn that a significant reduction in rice production could worsen Ghana’s dependence on imports and potentially trigger food supply challenges in the coming year.

Ghana’s northern belt, which produces a substantial share of the country’s rice, is at the centre of the crisis. Farmers say poor sales of last season’s harvest have depleted their working capital, making it difficult to hire tractors, purchase inputs, and settle debts owed to service providers.

Charles Nyaaba, a rice farmer and former Director of the Peasant Farmers Association of Ghana (PFAG), said recent visits to rice-producing valleys in the Northern, Volta and Oti regions revealed little farming activity ahead of the planting season.

“The valleys are virtually empty,” he said, describing the situation as alarming.

According to Nyaaba, farmers have sold less than 20 percent of last year’s harvest, which exceeded 960,000 tonnes. He estimates that more than 700,000 tonnes of paddy rice remain unsold in homes and warehouses across the country.

The situation presents a troubling paradox. While Ghana recorded one of its highest rice harvests in recent years, millions of Ghanaians continue to face food insecurity. A food security assessment released in November estimated that approximately eight million people do not have adequate access to food.

Farmers blame the glut on weak market demand, competition from cheaper imported rice, and inadequate government support to absorb excess production.

The government’s Feed Ghana programme promised support through the provision of machinery and agricultural inputs, while the 2026 Budget allocated approximately GH¢200 million to the National Food Buffer Stock Company (NAFCO) to purchase local produce. NAFCO subsequently announced a floor price of GH¢5 per kilogram for paddy rice.

However, farmer groups argue that little of the promised intervention has translated into meaningful purchases.

PFAG and other producer associations have accused NAFCO of failing to fully implement President John Dramani Mahama’s directive for state institutions to prioritise locally produced rice.

NAFCO has rejected those claims, maintaining that it continues to buy rice but lacks the financial capacity to absorb the entire surplus. The agency estimates it would require at least GH¢770 million to clear the existing stockpile.

The government has also approved a rice import quota system aimed at protecting local producers, but farmers are calling for its immediate enforcement.

Estimates of the surplus vary widely. While Nyaaba places the volume of unsold paddy at more than 700,000 tonnes, producer associations have previously suggested the figure could be as high as one million tonnes, with some independent assessments estimating up to 1.3 million tonnes valued at nearly GH¢5 billion.

Agricultural stakeholders say the challenges extend beyond excess supply. Smuggled rice and low-cost imports continue to undercut local producers, while limited processing capacity, inconsistent quality standards and inadequate marketing have weakened demand for Ghana-grown rice.

The appreciation of the cedi has also contributed to lower farm-gate prices, further squeezing profit margins for farmers already struggling with rising production costs.

Economists have warned that a sharp decline in planting this season could have far-reaching consequences.

Abdullah Mumuni, Head of Economics at the University of Professional Studies, Accra (UPSA), said reduced rice production could negatively affect employment, economic growth and food security while increasing pressure on foreign exchange reserves through higher imports.

Similarly, former Dean of the University of Ghana Business School, Professor Joshua Abor, cautioned that continued losses could push many farming households deeper into poverty.

He urged government agencies, including NAFCO and the Ghana Commodity Exchange, to intensify purchases of locally produced rice, invest in processing facilities in northern Ghana and strengthen border controls to curb the influx of cheap imports.

Farmers insist that urgent intervention is needed before the current planting window closes.

They warn that without immediate support to clear existing stocks and restore liquidity, Ghana risks moving from today’s record surplus to tomorrow’s production shortfall, potentially undermining national efforts to achieve greater food security and reduce dependence on imported rice.